Statistic Problems : Write a VBA function to implement simple exponential smoothing that takes the time series, smoothing parameter and initial level as input and returns the forecast for the next observation in the series.

Statistic Problems

1) The Monty Hall problem is a game show, where there are three closed doors.Behind one of these doors is a prize. You can win this prize, if you can correctly pick the door. You are first asked to pick a random door. The host, Monty, will open one of the other two doors at random and shows you that it does not have the prize. Now you are given an option to either change or stick with your decision.
The recommended strategy is to switch your decision. Simulate this strategy for the Monty hall problem using macros in excel to play the game 100 times and determine the number of times you won the price.                                                                                                                                         (15 marks)

2) The Australian Bureau of Statistics publish their monthly data on the number of
livestock slaughtered at  https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/agriculture/livestock-and-meat-australia/latest-release. Create a spreadsheet model to implement simple exponential forecasting to forecast the number of pigs slaughtered in the next four months. Find the optimal values for the parameters of your model.                                                                                                       (20 marks)

3) Write a VBA function to implement simple exponential smoothing that takes the time series, smoothing parameter and initial level as input and returns the forecast for the next observation in the series.